I get asked this very question online all the time these past few days.
Everyone is sure that Tzipi Livni has won, but then why do so many Israelis believe that Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Let’s try and shed some light on the situation.
The Israeli parliament, i.e. the Knesset, has 120 seats.
The Prime Minister has to have a majority of these Knesset members either in his party, or in a coalition of parties under his leadership. Basically, he or she needs to be able to rely on their votes in order to operate.
Israel has many political parties, so traditionally, no party ever gets nothing close to 61 seats. 30-40 seats is usually the most for a large party in Israel.
So, how does one become the Prime Minister? It’s not enough to be the head of a large party – not even the largest one. The PM wannabe has to negotiate with other political parties and get them to support him (or her). He has to come up with a majority of at least 61 seats for the coalition, comprised of any number of large or small parties.
Right now, Livni’s party, Kadima, has one more seat than Netanyahu’s party, the Likud. However, neither party is close to having a 61 seats majority on its own, having under 30 seats each.
So, now the question is, who can “build” a larger, and thus more stable, coalition? Some say that Tzipi Livni can’t have a stable government without the Likud. Therefore, if Netanyahu insists, and he probably will, he can actually block her efforts by creating his own majority.
In that case, it’s possible that the President of Israel, Shimon Peres, won’t even bother giving Livni the chance, even though her party is in the lead. If it’s clear that she can’t bring together enough of the other parties to create a stable coalition, and Netanyahu can, then he may just as well let him try first.
Still confused? It’s ok. Most people are. In fact, most politicians insist that it’s time to change the system altogether.
And on a lighter note, some pictures from our elections day – way overdue, but better late than never.
Waiting in line for voting:
And I let Ron vote in my place – after all, he’s a very smart and responsible seven year old:
