I was talking on Skype to a Syrian student in Damascus a couple of years ago. It was fairly exciting (and I’m not even sure how legal, for either of us). We discussed current events in the Middle East, and the prospects of peace between Israel and Syria. At some point, my newfound Syrian buddy mentioned Lebanon, and took me by surprise by mentioning that naturally, in such an agreement, Lebanon will be divided so that the Southern part will be under Israeli control, and the rest will become Syria.
I tried convincing the young man that Israel really doesn’t want ANY part of Lebanon. We’ve had our years over there and I don’t know of a single Israeli who wants to go back… I’m also convinced that it’s against Israel’s basic interests to have Lebanon devoured by Syria, in part or as a whole. The Israeli interest in regards to Lebanon, in a nutshell, is to have a strong, stable, democratic and sovereign Lebanon, with full control all over its territory, with the Hezbulla disarmed. By the same token, the Israeli interest in regards to Syria, lies in the same direction of containment of the Hezbulla and breaking the (un)holy alliance of political support, financing and arms shipments along the Iran-Syria-Lebanon axis.
I don’t want to turn this into too long a post. I am very curious as to what Syrians and Lebanese think about this issue.
on May 28th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Actually, I really don’t see the scenario happening at all. A successful Israeli-Syrian peace deal would rather fast-track an Israeli-Lebanese peace deal. Syria has more to lose if it signs a deal. They will lose ‘control’ over Hezbollah which would mean that they lose significant control over Lebanon. Internally, the people would expect greater reforms at a faster pace – no use of emergency law if you no longer have any threats – and it is likely the government could lose control. No Israeli boggy monster – no control. Syria needs to show that it is trying to work towards peace in order to alleviate international pressure. The Hariri Tribunal is almost ready to start and its no surprise that Syria had some hand in it – they were in-charge of security in Lebanon at the time. Syria will likely use the peace process as a “Get Out Of Jail Card”.
on May 28th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Jad, which of the scenarios you don’t see happening? The one where Syria lessens its support of HA and HA is weakened?
I very much like your scenarios, of a stronger Lebanon and more power to democratic forces within Syria. It does make me wonder what Syria has to gain from the peace process, if its leadership feels threatens by progress towards democracy?
I wonder how people in Lebanon, of various parties and groups, feel about the peace talks between Syria and Israel, particularly HA supporters who seem to be looking up to Syria. I wonder if Nassaralla has any official statement about the whole thing.
on May 29th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Actually, the division of Lebanon. Maybe back when Syria was in control but not this time.
I think we need a Syrian perspective on possible Syrian gains from a peace treaty. Hezbollah’s response to the whole issue is that its a Syrian issue and has nothing to do with them which I find quite amusing.
Jad Aouns last blog post..Salik’s Coming to Get You